Blog no unknown _systems thinking and its unintended consequence.

I swear my next cld will be about how the pursuit of systems thinking in such a condensed time is leading to a no of unintended consequences like girlfriend impatience, zero house maintenance, detachment from the real world, alienation from friends, increased white hair, deprived sleep, alienation from friends, distraction from work and fatigue : )

Seems like a reinforcing loop to me and i envisage a serious overshoot and collapse!

Blog 3 - Prohibition in the US during the 1920s

Problem narrative

This blog entry discusses the period from 1919 to 1933 in the US, during which the sale, manufacture, and transportation of alcohol for consumption were banned nationally. Prohibition in the US was originally enacted to suppress the alcohol trade, in order to curb the excessive use of alcohol which was deemed to be harmful to people’s physical and psychological health. It was also enacted in order to protect families, women and children from the effects of abuse of alcohol. Unfortunately this proved to be a misguided policy with severe unintended consequences. Over time this policy caused a number of social problems which included:

1. the creation of a violent alcohol black market driven by organised and large scale crime gangs that used these illicit profits to build criminal empires.

2. the production of much stronger alcohol, since it was easier to distribute and conceal, led to increased alcoholism.

3. the production of bootleg alcohol that was often dangerous for consumption claimed many lives.

4. making alcohol at home became a very common practice

5. high enforcement costs where necessary and millions of dollars of tax revenue lost

6. corruption of law enforcement agencies escalated out of control, leading to racketeering

7. thousands of jobs were lost.

8. more people died of alcohol related deaths than had died when alcohol was legal.

Study purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse and understand the complex socio-economic system of the the prohibition policy in the US in the 1920s as a whole system, to explore the effects of the prohibition policy over time and to discover the counter-intuitive behaviour of this policy. It also aims to developing a causal loop dynamic model, of the key socio-economic factors that drove the whole system.

References:

The Unintended Consequences of Prohibition. January 02, 2008 by The Historian

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/502645/the_unintended_consequences_of_prohibition.html

The Law of Unintended Consequences: The Economics of Prohibition

http://austrianeconomists.typepad.com/weblog/2009/05/the-law-of-unintended-consequences-the-economics-of-prohibition.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unintended_consequence

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohibition_in_the_United_States

http://mises.org/books/prohibition.pdf

http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=176107

Prohibition in the United States. http://www.1920-30.com/prohibition/

Blog 2 - Rabbit problem in Australia

While living in England, a certain Austin Thomas who had been an avid hunter regularly dedicating his weekends to rabbit shooting, decided to import 24 grey and domestic rabbits from England to his Barwon Park property near Geelong in Victoria in 1859 so that he could continue his hobby in Australia by creating a local population of the species. Australia had no native rabbit population. At the time he had stated, "The introduction of a few rabbits could do little harm and might provide a touch of home, in addition to a spot of hunting."

In a classic example of unintended consequences, within ten years of the introduction in 1859, rabbits undertook the fastest spread ever recorded of any mammal anywhere in the world. Rabbits are extremely prolific creatures, and Australia provided ideal breeding conditions since they were able to breed the entire year. This small population exploded to cover Victoria and New South Wales by 1886 and today rabbits are entrenched in the southern and central areas of the country, with scattered populations in the northern deserts.

Although the rabbit is a notorious pest it proved helpful to many people during the Great Depression and during wartime. Trapping rabbits helped farmers by providing something to eat, extra income and in some cases helped pay off farming debts. Later, frozen rabbit carcases were traded locally and exported. Pelts too, were used in the fur trade and are still used in the felt-hat industry.

Unfortunately rabbits are suspected of being the most significant known factor in species loss in Australia since they tend to kill young trees in orchards, forests and on properties by ring barking them (the process of completely removing a strip of bark around a tree's outer circumference, causing its death).

Rabbits are also responsible for serious soil erosion problems as they eat native plants, leaving the topsoil exposed and vulnerable to sheet, gully and wind erosion. The removal of this topsoil is devastating to the land as it takes many hundreds of years to regenerate. This soil is typically deposited in waterways, causing siltation and destroying aquatic ecosystems.

They also actively compete with domestic livestock and altered pasture composition by selectively grazing on more palatable and nutritious plants leading to destruction of habitat and affecting many native marsupial species such as the bilby and the bandicoot as their feed sources were outstripped by marauding rabbits.

Interventions

In the past, rabbit populations were reduced drastically with the introduction of biological control vectors. In 1950, the myxomatosis virus initially wiped out between 95 and 100% of rabbits in some areas. However, rabbits recovered with the development of resistance in many populations. The introduction of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease or Rabbit Calicivirus (RHDV or RCD) also helped control populations, especially in arid areas, but again, rapid resistance to RCD has left rabbits as one of Australia's most formidable pests.

Other actions for rabbit control include:

• fumigation of warrens;
• fencing;
• destruction of warren systems;
• removal of rabbit harbour; and
• shooting.

References:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbits_in_Australia

http://www.cbit.uq.edu.au/biocontrol/animal/rabbit/

http://www.animalcontrol.com.au/rabbit.htm

Blog 1 - Tuna Fish farming in Malta

This submission aims to discuss the issues related to commercial tuna fish farming (aquaculture) in the Maltese Islands.

Tuna fish farming involves catching juvenile tuna that have not had a chance to reproduce from the wild and growing them on in cages where they are fed on large amounts of small pelagic fish such as sardines and anchovies, taking as much as 20 kg of wild fish to produce 1kg of tuna.

It is clear that aquaculture is the fastest growing sector of the world food economy and production is expected to exceed catches from wild fisheries. Aquaculture in Malta is expected to grow accordingly to service this demand however so far it is has developed way in advance of adequate environmental and public health safeguards.

However, while fish farming has been the subject of much controversy, there is no doubt that the aquaculture industry is a strong player in the Maltese economy. This dichotomy of benefits and risks requires an urgent need for better planning towards improved organization and management of the industry, including improvements towards genetic stocks, improved feeds, improved marketing and product presentation, as well as a better understanding of fish health practices.

References:

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20091217/local/maltas-tuna-quota-slashed

http://www.fishonline.org/farmed/finfish.php

1) How this problem evolved over time.

Marine aquaculture started in Malta in 1988 when the National Aquaculture Center (NAC) was setup with the primary aim of taking advantage of Malta’s excellent seawater temperatures which range between 14^oC and 28^oC, giving Malta an advantage over other European countries that experience a colder climate. Since then countries such as Malta, Italy and Spain have become hosts to the largest tuna farm operations worldwide that supply Asia and Japan for its use in sushi.

The gross output of fish sales from the aquaculture industry in 2008 amounted to 6,727 tonnes, of which 5,035 tonnes were due to tuna sales. More recently scientists concurred that Mediterranean blue fin tuna was on the verge of collapse and that the international trade in the species should be banned. The scientists concluded that the spawning biomass amounted to under 15 % compared to when tuna fishing began, meaning that blue fin tuna met ICCAT's criteria for protection. Consequently EU ministers, in December 2009, agreed to make further cuts to the amount of blue fin tuna that can be fished next season, and Malta was allocated a total quota of 161 tonnes for 2010, down more than 45 per cent from 2007.

Unfortunately the sector is still relatively in its infancy in Malta, and a lot of entrepreneurs have joined the fray in the hope of a quick buck, leading to a proliferation of small units and uncoordinated development that have created numerous problems which are still in need of resolution. In fact this intensification of aquaculture production has led to the industry being regarded as one of the leading polluters of the aquatic environment.

References:

Macallister Elliot and Partners. “Forward study of community aquaculture”. (1999) MacAllister Elliot and Partners, Lymington. http://europa.eu.int/comm/fisheries/doc_et_publ/liste_publi/studies/aquaculture.pdf

“Aquaculture: 2008”. National Statistics Office. 13 November 2009. http://www.nso.gov.mt/statdoc/document_file.aspx?id=2623

Agius Carmelo. “Strategies for aquaculture development in a small Mediterranean island state: Malta”. Department of Biology, University of Malta. http://ressources.ciheam.org/om/pdf/c43/99600253.pdf

Staniford Don. “Sea cage fish farming: an evaluation of environmental and public health aspects (the five fundamental flaws of sea cage fish farming)”. http://www.salmonfarmmonitor.org/stanifordpaper.doc

2) Variables that should be tracked over time to illustrate the evolution of the problem.

Many argue that tuna fish farming is drastically reducing tuna fish stocks and biodiversity in the sea. Also penning close to shore is having a negative impact on coastal and marine ecology, polluting the surrounding areas and water quality, and affecting tourism. Impacts of tuna aquaculture activities on the marine environment over time include numerous variables, namely:

1. reduced tuna fish stocks in the Mediterranean sea
2. changes in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the location in which cultivation takes place,
3. organic enrichment,
4. increased biological oxygen demand,
5. changes in benthic populations,
6. development of bacterial resistant traits,
7. changes in the marine food webs,
8. exchanges of cultured individuals with wild organisms and
9. the introduction of alien species.

References:

“Fisheries Operational Programme for Malta. 2007-2013.” October 2008. http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/structural_measures/op/malta_en.pdf

3) The system within which this problem exists and its "hard" elements (things that can be fairly easily counted or measured) and "soft" elements (things that are not easily measured or quantified, such social or political factors).

Proper monitoring can lead to the further development of Malta’s aquaculture industry and ensure that Malta protects the sea while exploiting this immense resource in harmony with nature, and with little impact on competing users.

Hard elements of tuna fish farming that can be monitored include:

• data on fish outputs
• data on fish mortality
• sampling of marine benthic diversity (flora and fauna living on the seabed)
• sampling of biotic assemblages (collections of plant and animal populations that are characteristic of specific habitats)
• sampling of water quality including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, nitrate, phosphorus, ammonia, total bacteria count, faecal coliforms, turbidity
• sampling of sediment quality, namely granulometry, and organic carbon and organic nitrogen content
• records of input into the environment, e.g. feed, chemicals

Soft elements that are much harder to measure and monitor include:

• impact on world tuna fish stocks
• pollution to coastal areas
• impact on water quality in coastal areas
• impact of fish escapes on biodiversity

References:

http://www.ajdtuna.com/monitoring_enviroment.html