Problem narrative
This blog entry discusses the period from 1919 to 1933 in the US, during which the sale, manufacture, and transportation of alcohol for consumption were banned nationally. Prohibition in the US was originally enacted to suppress the alcohol trade, in order to curb the excessive use of alcohol which was deemed to be harmful to people’s physical and psychological health. It was also enacted in order to protect families, women and children from the effects of abuse of alcohol. Unfortunately this proved to be a misguided policy with severe unintended consequences. Over time this policy caused a number of social problems which included:
1. the creation of a violent alcohol black market driven by organised and large scale crime gangs that used these illicit profits to build criminal empires.
2. the production of much stronger alcohol, since it was easier to distribute and conceal, led to increased alcoholism.
3. the production of bootleg alcohol that was often dangerous for consumption claimed many lives.
4. making alcohol at home became a very common practice
5. high enforcement costs where necessary and millions of dollars of tax revenue lost
6. corruption of law enforcement agencies escalated out of control, leading to racketeering
7. thousands of jobs were lost.
8. more people died of alcohol related deaths than had died when alcohol was legal.
Study purpose
The purpose of this study is to analyse and understand the complex socio-economic system of the the prohibition policy in the US in the 1920s as a whole system, to explore the effects of the prohibition policy over time and to discover the counter-intuitive behaviour of this policy. It also aims to developing a causal loop dynamic model, of the key socio-economic factors that drove the whole system.
References:
The Unintended Consequences of Prohibition. January 02, 2008 by The Historian
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/502645/the_unintended_consequences_of_prohibition.html
The Law of Unintended Consequences: The Economics of Prohibition
http://austrianeconomists.typepad.com/weblog/2009/05/the-law-of-unintended-consequences-the-economics-of-prohibition.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unintended_consequence
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohibition_in_the_United_States
http://mises.org/books/prohibition.pdf
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=176107
The Probibition Era is a very interesting time in American History. I always wondered about all the unintended consequences of this law and about all the lives that could have been spared if the law was never passed.
ReplyDeleteIt is also interesting to use this model as a comparison to other prohibited items in the U.S. and in the world, they all follow this type of model in some shape or form. (For ex. illegal drugs or weapons)
I think you did a great job desribing the unintended consequences. It would be intersting to see some reference modes illustrating the actual increase of alcoholism and violence due to the prohibition of alcohol.